Data-Driven Approach to Forecast Heat Consumption of Buildings with High-Priority Weather Data

By increasing the penetration of renewable energies in district heating (DH), the intermittency of the supply-side increases for heating service providers. Therefore, forecasting the energy consumption of buildings is needed in order to hedge against renewable power intermittency. This paper investigates the application of data-driven approaches to forecast the heat consumption of buildings in the winter, using high-priority weather data. The residential buildings are connected to mixing loops of DH to supply space heating and hot water. The heating consumption of the building is calculated using sensor data, including inflow/outflow temperature and mass flow. Principal component analysis (PCA) is applied to determine the key weather data affecting heat energy consumption. Then, the study compares the competences of artificial neural networks (ANNs), linear regression models (LRM), and k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) in forecasting heat consumption, using informative data. Based on the PCA analysis, ambient temperature and solar irradiation are shown to be the highest priority weather data, contributing to 40.6% and 29.2% of heat energy forecasting, respectively. Furthermore, the ANN exhibits a forecasting accuracy of more than 50% higher than LRM and k-NN

Demand-Side Flexibility in Power Systems:A Survey of Residential, Industrial, Commercial, and Agricultural Sectors

In recent years, environmental concerns about climate change and global warming have encouraged countries to increase investment in renewable energies. As the penetration of renewable power goes up, the intermittency of the power system increases. To counterbalance the power fluctuations, demand-side flexibility is a workable solution. This paper reviews the flexibility potentials of demand sectors, including residential, industrial, commercial, and agricultural, to facilitate the integration of renewables into power systems. In the residential sector, home energy management systems and heat pumps exhibit great flexibility potential. The former can unlock the flexibility of household devices, e.g., wet appliances and lighting systems. The latter integrates the joint heat–power flexibility of heating systems into power grids. In the industrial sector, heavy industries, e.g., cement manufacturing plants, metal smelting, and oil refinery plants, are surveyed. It is discussed how energy-intensive plants can provide flexibility for energy systems. In the commercial sector, supermarket refrigerators, hotels/restaurants, and commercial parking lots of electric vehicles are pointed out. Large-scale parking lots of electric vehicles can be considered as great electrical storage not only to provide flexibility for the upstream network but also to supply the local commercial sector, e.g., shopping stores. In the agricultural sector, irrigation pumps, on-farm solar sites, and variable-frequency-drive water pumps are shown as flexible demands. The flexibility potentials of livestock farms are also surveyed

Integration of Joint Power-Heat Flexibility of Oil Refinery Industries to Uncertain Energy Markets

This paper proposes a novel approach to optimize the main energy consumptions of heavy oil refining industries (ORI) in response to electricity price uncertainties. The whole industrial sub-processes of the ORI are modeled mathematically to investigate the joint power-heat flexibility potentials of the industry. To model the refinery processes, an input/output flow-based model is proposed for five main refining units. Moreover, the role of storage tanks capacity in the power system flexibility is investigated. To hedge against the electricity price uncertainty, an uncertain bound for the wholesale electricity price is addressed. To optimize the industrial processes, a dual robust mixed-integer quadratic program (R-MIQP) is adopted; therefore, the ORI’s operational strategies are determined under the worst-case realization of the electricity price uncertainty. Finally, the suggested approach is implemented in the south-west sector of the Iran Energy Market that suffers from a lack of electricity in hot days of summer. The simulation results confirm that the proposed framework ensures industrial demand flexibility to the external grids when a power shortage occurs. The approach not only provides demand flexibility to the power system, but also minimizes the operation cost of the industries